The rumours of Xi Jinping's demise have been exaggerated.

In the last few weeks, as the enormous costs associated with “zero-Covid” lockdowns have been a sign of China’s increasing economic fragility, Many news articles have been published speculating on the possible weakness in the political sphere of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The Wall Street Journal, for example, has for the past few months recently been saying about “widening grievances within the party over Mr Xi’s policies,” and that while previously “Xi Jinping seemed all but invincible,” the current situation is that “his push to steer China away from capitalism and the West” has “exposed faint cracks in his hold on power.” Similarly, the Financial Times has reported that the Chinese leadership is deep divisions regarding economics and Covid policies. Some have even embraced controversial speculations about the imminent departure of Xi Jinping.

There are sharp internal political divisions In Beijing that might be present. The possibility of sharp internal policy divisions in Beijing is intriguing and worthy of consideration. But it is essential to be wary that this kind of speculative speculation, if taken too far, may reveal more about us than the political reality of China.

Xi Jinping is in no real danger of losing the power he enjoys. His entire political strategy in 2012 was to take control of what Christopher Johnson, former head China analyst at the CIA, is said as three major “levers of power” within the “Chinese ‘Deep State.” With a vicious “anti-corruption” campaign as a knife, he was able to break his adversaries’ grip on the security forces swiftly, the military as well as the bureaucracy of the Party (i.e. that is, the HR department, basically) and tight control of these institutions entirely to his own – which is where they remain. So, even a tiny amount of frustration with the public or financial turmoil doesn’t significantly weaken Xi’s hold. Furthermore, he has the power of popular Chinese nationalism to draw on during any time of actual difficulties.

There is no doubt that China’s self-inflicted economic problems could cost Xi within the internal political sphere that governs the Party. But this will likely be in the form of not having as many of his allies from the factional side as he would like in the coming 20th Party Congress this November. Shanghai Party Secretary and devoted Xi Li Qiang’s political career could or might not end up in difficulties; for example, this is important to Chinese people who are interested in politics, like me, but it will not necessarily be the case of the dramatic fall that was China’s Xi regime.

One cannot help but think that there is more to the current frenzied excitement about the possible political repercussions of Xi’s presidency and that Cold War atmosphere lingering in the air due to the invasion of Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine and the economic isolation of the West from Russia. Not only are hopeful rumours of imminent coups within the Kremlin being regularly reported in Western media, however, but the rather lofty objective of initiating Putin’s elimination of power is also believed to be a de reality in U.S. government policy.

The chance to revisit the well-known story that the Western world has had to tell about its Cold War experience. In the end, authoritarianism fell, and the democratic system prevailed, which is an unstoppable source of comfort. We’d love to share the same story about China with ourselves.

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